DOTA 2 Shanghai Major Preview | True Sight

ladies and gentlemen welcome to true sight a very special episode of true sight if you’re like me you’ve spent the entire day waiting for Shanghai to happen damn Shanghai and it’s time zones but here we are one hour away from the beginning of the Shanghai major and I’m extremely excited to have you here joining me to break down the predictions to make sure you nail your compendium predictions assuming they haven’t already locked his two of the four most analysts in DotA and Knoxville guys how are you doing tonight I wanted to know I I wondered which direction you were going with that but I great tom an analyst and syndrome footman not 99 international winners in our cheesy i believe was the headline of plastic but obviously najas knoxville and grant will be joining us to break down the predictions guys seriously though how how are you doing tonight are you excited about the about the major coming in just a mere 52 minutes yeah i didn’t realize it was gonna like it happened today i was at work and I went to go see gamers and I was like oh daddy hey all right I thought it wasn’t like the weekend I was like oh that’s even better all right mmhmm yeah plenty of plenty of games confuse just awkwardly sit there I’ll just go what’s going on I was just hoping for like a down-the-line thing like you just naturally just fill it in just give me your life story but sadly that’s not what we’re gonna do well obviously we’re not here to talk about your [ __ ] day job or whatever you do outside of dota we’re here to talk about the dota major itself now before we get started into the meat and potatoes before we get talking about who’s going to win a bunch of money or whatever who gives a [ __ ] we need to talk about the important stuff and that is obviously the compendium predictions gentlemen you guys have mulled over these compendium predictions quite a bit in the past week you how confident are you feeling in your current breakdown in your own compendiums already confident knox and i did a video a couple nights ago you can you can catch it on youtube it’s a special edition of my show stats don’t lie and think we’re pretty confident in our picks if I don’t lose to Malini I’ll be I’ll be happy I haven’t lost yet slip up in like all the companion sense so yeah I think I’m good I think I’m undervaluing every single Chinese team player since everyone saying he holmes gonna do good and i don’t think they are at all but besides that it looks good my favorite of the list that came out of like like rtz pudding jacky mao for like every single but i do bigger those were my favorite ones but let’s that but let’s get serious just here for a little bit let’s talk a little bit about the options and what you guys pick for your compendiums will try not to hit every single one of them otherwise we’ll be here all night but let’s hit the very beginning what is going to be the most picked hero at Shanghai vengefulspirits slam dunk you really think it’s gonna be a vengeful spirit it’s not gonna hide I think it I think it was all of the numbers to me was down to vengeful spirit and invoker and bye-bye invoker okay I think I think the one the one problem is that all of our predictions are based off previous data and sure as we see with majors is always some sort of tournament minutes a shift shall we put down I was actually looking today at the list of all of the people who put down stuff shall we put witch doctor and that actually makes like really really large amounts of sense i think that witch doctors like could could very well be the the peg but he won’t ever leave and i think the fat you’re getting your own it isn’t gonna be bit like first band and like I think venge will get man like a bit more than people think that’s why well that’s good I think that’s my my only doubt right is um with and boker just getting nerfed into the ground that’s one that’s one more here that you don’t have to ban and so earth spirits already been getting banned first phase long druids already been getting banned consistently first phase so you’re gonna have a couple of the heroes that have been showing up a lot that start to get banned first phase a little bit more often and I worry ventral spirit might be one of those but i still think a she’d been so good all patching teams had refused a banner thus far I I still think that’s the pic yeah I don’t have inches sorry Karen you’re good young man I was gonna say eventual spreads very versatile hirak um and which doctor is to in but not to the same extent that ventral spread essential can support can dual a growth plan can roam can probably conmed very well but yeah I think that witch doctor is definitely a support but can be aggressive and defensive so versatile in a different way and he’s in carrier 02 I mean we saw ad finem played it like really good today no we play turn down yeah so that so the thing is also with which doctor is that teams we’ve seen almost always draft first phase if there’s no Opie heroes left on the pool

for them to snag a very very commonly go for one call and one support and if you’re picking a support you don’t have to as your first pick or second pic of the tournament’s of the of the draft rather decide whether you’re going to go for a very defensive or aggressive drops so vs. I heroes always to do very well and that’s why bench and witch doctor Oh excellent thanks Annette regard any night you go so I go ahead grandpa just I was just saying I got Beastmaster picked for mine I think he’s get him Lee like just the death ball man meta still there may have been watching too much North American dota but that hero is never banned but it’s literally first picked every game even elite wolves first complexity every game it was first pic by each team yeah what when you’re talking about when you’re talking about flexibility beastmaster is a hero that I actually think is it an interesting and a pretty good choice that I hadn’t thought about just because he’s one of those heroes that can serve in either the core or the greedy for position role and if you see like like tusk is another good example of a hero that fits that of that category that got picked a lot at Frankfurt I still think there aren’t necessarily enough teams out there that run beastmaster regularly um but it’s it honestly it’s of the of the set of heroes that I didn’t really consider seriously Beastmaster is one that yeah it wouldn’t complete me it wouldn’t completely shocked me with a lot of we’ve seen a lot of drafts where people sort of took over the safe lane with the beastmaster he’s able to harass her afar even though he’s a melee champion because of the boar yeah and he’s more sleep melee champion oh my god oh my god I uh the fun pull the plug we’re done here it was good this beast master actually is a champion in lore so you can get away with it here yeah well of course that’s that’s what it’s what I meant thank you for that thank you for picking me up fellas well let’s move on to the next one before we get too far down the rabbit hole you touched on my favorite hot button topic right now and that’s the most band here it sounds like it’s pretty unanimous that it’s gonna be earth spirit what do you do about this hero and it I I actually don’t have it ban because i don’t i don’t know i actually don’t know why me i should change it i put i oh just cuz i think in me that’s neat no no no no no don’t change because that it’s like it’s like i’d say like 6535 like iOS and i was not a bad picture at all I just think because Pete wouldn’t in majors like you’ll see all in these like smaller terms BTS America’s be Tia’s Europe you’ll see people like not pick or ban it but then when they’re paying playing for like five hundred thousand dollars they fall back and what they know and I just assume that after date oh great brother he’s giving us the high five position what sounds like he’s very much I see grant yeah he’s just like he’s just like this like just not at the high five it’s honestly the the big thing right the biggest difference on in the last 36 months or so between the tier 1 and the tier two teams is that it’s very as it’s your one team it’s very very costly to not run a particular hero at all like it’s very very unusual EG for example io is pretty much the only one of the top here is that they absolutely will not run yeah when I think they stay away from that so much I mean especially because we’ve seen people like crit do incredible things like game changing things with I oh it’s just the way that they it just doesn’t fit their game plan it’s very very weak in the laning phase and it doesn’t really uh it’s not really compatible with the way that they like to win games they’d like to win games by being more efficient resource accumulation maybe opponent and I always not really going to help you with that the problem with isles will see you need a dedicated play who knows how to play the hero and we have all of the best players in the world going to be i don’t see i dont i I’ve heard that before I don’t believe it if if Peter or Clinton wanted to learn I oh they would be a very very good I’ll player with it not very long yes I mean that’s tricky it’s their decision as so many is m-my this even Sean is very very many excellent I owe players to have played it before I did I mention me is by far the most ban first first phase band hero this patch oh yeah followed by invoker es learned rude Chen so I mean and that’s and that’s because it’s it’s just certain certain teams you have to ban it against in certain teams just don’t want to deal with it that makes a lot of sense very it’s a very it’s exactly as grant was saying that depending on depending on the region and the teams involved you’ll see you’ll see I’ll be first band every game or you’ll see it just get through the draft entirely yeah and it seems like it’s their their teams that very specifically

want to run it for their place I mean one of the things that I’ve said about OG in the past is that og likes to live in chaos and I feel like I was a good hero for helping bail you out of chaos you know he will just he will outlast the tower hits and the the chip damage in the orbit venom damage just so just long enough to get you that kill in a chaotic situation and then get you out won’t even want to move on to the next prediction and one of the ones that I think is probably one of the hardest to pick and that’s the the lowest death average now this is interesting to me because I actually think that’s not I don’t think that that’s that bad really yeah I think that’s I think you you look at for that category you look at carry position heroes that are split pushing and or elusive I’d like I think I actually think it’s going to be more fling and not particularly close in that case oh yeah grant the chat was treated to your skype biking on oh my gosh uh change that once maybe when you have time but we’re we’re talking about the hero with the least deaths of the nahas go ahead yeah we put oh yeah here we go welcome back I think the best which comment was that Walmart’s Wi-Fi that you know is like that I thought have work right now how does that make sense you idiot yeah soma somos band or spirit I own that that’s all I missed ya well now we can move it is the way you talk about for fewest deaths um but I think that I I think that lone druid is gonna be run a little bit too often in the offline in this tournament to be a serious contender in that category fair enough Knoxville your thoughts on the the here with the least deaths this tournament oh no I’m I put multiple endowment I just carried on looking at the other ones 750 points is also a lot of points for something that is actually pretty easy compared to some of the others yep they give you a lot less so thanks Bruno yeah I gotta embrace fear and I think amber spirits just too good of a carry a few I mean you you have to farm well you’re not gonna die early because I mean your skills and then late game you just oh no II everywhere no actually that’s the e it’s a good pic but that’s not the right reasoning ember that whenever guys a lot he gets it’s because he gets absolutely crapped on mid like the problem with ember spirit is he’ll have these games where where he’s mid and he’s up against like a quap and he just gets chained ganked early sumail game pretty much Alan exactly exactly it’s like I it that hero the problem with that hero is that there are gonna be gained you know sumail or or anybody else where he’s gonna have five deaths at like 12 minutes and that’s just the nature of the hero is that if he say he can start mid and he can get really crapped on early Oh eternity if he gets to 12 15 minutes and he’s had a good start then yeah like he’s not he’s could easily not die the rest of the game but that hero is vulnerable to a lot of death Serena unless your eternal envy who as a recall doesn’t die and and wins every game he’s in so the next one that I want to get to is the did we go back in time six months come on a joke i love jack a jack is it jack is a great player and a great guy and he plays a hell of an ember spirit let’s give him credit there is a hell of a spirit um though I’m curious about a couple of these team ones in particular because a few of these seem difficult for me the team that wins the longest and shortest games longest seems a little bit easier for me because I feel like um Alliance is probably a team that’s most likely to drag a game out and find a solution in in the ultra hyper super quadroon late game and but the shortest game is kind of surprising to me because it feels like circumstances sort of have to line up for you to get that short game what do you guys thoughts short game is easier the thing about short game is you just you pick a team that has a very favorable group and you pick a team that you think is going to win in some stops fair enough yeah I think that the first game the first match show that someone could actually be that’s like even could beat MVP yeah that could be the shortest game I mean eeo EG any any team the thing about EG is in a fairly challenging group relative to some of the other teams but you know you pick a team that you think is gonna is going to have some really lopsided matchups early on though I think the longest game is a much much harder call I think I think you could see LGD newbie Alliance is probably not on my top five or top four or five choices for that one um but I it’s not it’s not a bad choice either i just i think my top teams for that would be would be newbie lgb eat even maybe as badly as i as i fear that they’ll do

like i could even see very weird things happening at arc on doing that just be they actually have like a 42 minute average match oh that’s I I have our conscious cuz I’m was I had the privilege of casting or 120 minute game they’re 90 minute game and they’re 80 minute game so it’s kind of a spec but I they literally are con is they don’t it’s a fluff and something they don’t get flustered even when yeah they won all three of those games with one core a syllabary and all three of them and they had like four supports around them they still win 120-minute games with one core ona cond is just if they win it’s gonna be a long drawn-out game not a not a 10-minute game do you see any do you see parallels between I see some parallels between this arc on squad and the the last iteration of c9 the way that the way that the Theban captain math squad yeah I can see that I think they have a little less uh not maturity like they they have less time playing in general in the protein I think that’s gonna hurt him here especially on land like with white beard and wipe your dick but yeah excellent well I just want to interject real quick in that give a sincere apology to our our audience who is watching and seeing the fun of working with skype in a professional context as you can see it’s a wonderful wonderful piece of software that has no problems whatsoever guys before we wrap up the the discussion about the Campagna predictions I want to hit real quick the the specific numbers that I thought these were interesting predictions like the number of games play the total number of years pick things like that and the ones that the trend that I’m seeing I got a spreadsheet in front of me that shows what what you guys pick and it looks like Joe it feels like we’re gonna see a lot of long games with a lot of kills and you guys seem to disagree you ICP pdic not house in Knoxville you guys are putting the the games that like 80 to 90 minutes something like that for the longest game 15 to 20 at the shortest do you really think we’re going to see that much of a spread in the games that we see in the group stages not I do hi just elections are based on all of the games not just group stages yeah babes are included oh I see honestly let me the the biggest thing that I tried to do when when Knox and i made this video was to say that look predicting averages is very much is very different mathematically from predicting maximums anytime you say longest game of the tournament highest kill total highest GPM it’s like okay I mean those are those are guesses let’s be frank they’re educated guesses but their guesses like we can we can give you very good predictions for total number of game played total heroes peck week you know we we have a very hard time definitively predicting what the longest match is going to be well because it only it only takes one of those games yeah as long as all the games go between 20 and 60 minutes rigidly and then one goes for two hours bags in grant I mean grant is just gave the perfect example of that a couple minutes ago where are kind you know they do have some other longer matches but their longest matches that you you have the hundred thirty minute game and then it goes down to like 85-90 and then I mean it’s in there could easily be like on a 30 minute game would there was one day in Frankfurt in fact where I think every match was like over before 40 minutes and then we had one that was 80 so I I’m just worried about perfect world servers us watching games and if it is a hundred minute game the textures exploding plus the combination of that I really don’t think the games will be watchful if that happens we just get oh my god can we just not because I’m really worried about that but I don’t think there’s Jack and crap we can do about it I very distinctly remember a game in which dark seer had a new Arcana I had like explosions around him lightning he was leaving a trail of mass Pratt was a con game that was the archive yeah that’s what I thought that’s what i thought well gentlemen you’re on the hook money-back guarantee if you don’t get your compendium points these are the men to hold responsible and that you know what their skype pictures look like so make sure to go find them let’s move on from compendium predictions to the actual meat and potatoes of this thing we’ve got four groups of four teams and it is just a prediction paradise so let’s let’s dive straight into it if you guys are ready with group a the match is coming up today we’ve got see dec he home MVP phoenix and team secret guys starting with grant break down this group for me oh I still think secret is a tier 1 teams going into this tournament even though everyone wants to say they’re not I actually have them placing higher than 0 g here Mike I’m looking lean way off the mark but I do all right break break it down for me why I’ve I just I know how puppy reacts to bad situations like this sir like when secret out their first loss after they won like seven lands they came back and won again I just

think all right this thing I think mija will do far I think he’s been practicing a lot from what I so I wanted this is this is one of one of two or three teams I really want to get grant to break down for me because I absolutely love we as a player I think the guy is a magnificent player and a great person they have not been able to figure out his hero pool I don’t think they’re gonna win this tournament with Earth’s Earth Spirit mid so what I mean what do you do with we mid what does he play in this patch in this meta it’s literally he’s just gonna have to go winrunner leenon like almost every game I think are his two heroes that’s pretty much it but I think when he does do those he dominates his lanes like against like a su Mei lambert like even coops he dominates them but it’s if teams gave it to him and if puppy wants to pick it for him now I want to interject with you guys real quick because we’ve got a reddit question that pertains to this you’re talking about some some underutilized pics crazy actually wants to know what are some 6.86 underutilized heroes or surprisingly not seen they will see on the rise after at the Shanghai major and right Greg gave you one before mm-hmm yes that’s peace master yep hit and hit me hit me with some others what what the other party otherwise over the other one is OD the big one is OD which we’ve seen a lot in na but not necessarily in other regions and i think i think this tournament this tournament could very well be 40 d what mdl was for a spirit yeah it’s she’s kid I don’t I am glad they nerfed invoker but I think OD was a better hero than a vogue or even before invoker out the nerve Odie’s so strong right now he’s unbeatable in lion any lion he doesn’t lose yet so that’s the next we’ll have to nerve him what is it Astro imprisonment will no longer be a hard disabled you’ll still be able to cast spells in it will just go down the line just nerve every mid hero until everybody’s the same so you’re saying OD was a better hero to begin with tell me a little bit about that because at first blush invoker seems to be a much more versatile hero the very least and certainly more has more escape in the mid lane where you’re seeing a lot of ganks what makes OD a better hero in that position at right now the bat if he does going we’ve seen sumail an hour TZ bowls plates a fling but if it’s just middle the fact he has a four second set up or like a getaway at level one like you combine with the pot of any kind of ganker you can just set up you always get the room with that hero heat and let like once he’s in the late game he does the most amount of damage you can always keep pushing with him his aura is just his or has always been good i think it’s been underutilized like in the past eight years it’s hard to say exactly he’s just extremely the amount of damage he can put out early game an late game is unrivaled i think if you wanted to oversimplify it uh what you’d say is that he is almost as much of a lane Dominator now as he used to be and his mid game his damage output and utility now in mid game and late game fights is is so much more than it used to be post rework now that astral orb has the int steal like he can right-click if he gets off ten right clicks in a team fight and then oldies like you’re all teams done mom quit my question then as as somebody who’s watched some some dota is that why not pick the Templar I’m sorry yeah the Templar assassin in the middling because while OD has the ability to destroy it attacks with his astral imprisonment ta has the refract which means she could stay mobile while she escapes ganks she has the side blades which obviously don’t do as much damage as a world of our but but why is that not a better pic right now than OD you wanna take this one grant now you can have him I mean that did so again oversimplifying I’m not gonna get to I don’t wanna get too bogged down in technical manisha but the big thing is ta got nerfed a couple patches ago so that her spells are now very expensive right now and so she gets a stroll orbed a couple times and she’s too dumb to do anything you see I must I’m a good support and I always keep the the arcane boots on cooldown so I guess I’ve just never noticed that problem I’m too much of a like I’m too much of a laga fanboy and like I’ve allowed wagah to convince me that like with proper positioning and good use of side blades you can win any Lane with ta ever but from what I’ve seen like ta can really get hurt against OD because of the combination you can imprison her early on to screw up her last hitting and then you can order a couple times and she has real money issues she does need a fair bit of farm and that man is gonna catch up soon I’m sure so so going back to the group with sounds like we have a vote for team secret and what was your other pic to go through in the group grant I think secret and II III has to be Eon apparently everyone thinks they’re the favor in the tournament it have it is later don’t bend what do you

think yeah I think it is Kenneth E home is probably number one and MVP is probably number four but secret and scenic I think are gonna have to meet each other twice to decide who goes forward and obviously only one of those matches really counts and that’s the second one so we might I’m probably only gonna be able to stay awake to watch the their first match and in the second round but I think that the most exciting match of the entire group won’t be the winners bracket final it’ll be the the losers bracket on the side a second third I think I think of all the opening matches in the tournament I think we’re gonna proud we may learn the most from secret vs CDC because those are if you were if you were to ask me what are my three or four sort of wild card teams teams that I could see making a big run in this tournament or teams that I could see absolutely flaming out those would be that those would be two of the three or four teams and they’re facing each other in the first game of the tournament it I mean just because probably secret see dick newbie and beachy that we lack are uncertain about beachy we are we’re a little bit o geo that that is i would i would i’d put VP in there I put I put V is one of my big wild cards but yeah yeah but that I think the big thing is like right up there but it’s a question of where the beach is going to have variants that makes them drop or whether they stay at a high level people have put them top four i think that’s that’s that seems to be a problem with Chinese thing about beaches are like there-there downside is like I cannot see vici gaming finishing outside the top eight I really can’t can anybody actually c VG finishing outs of the tough especially at this lineup gets bamming dead previous tournament obviously they looked great just not good enough to to make it over that hump that they seem to face every time they get into the later stages of the bracket I could see them but that’s groovy no I don’t want to like you know rush anything here thank you great Thank You grant for keeping Samara target that’s yep I appreciate ok so we’ve got we’ve got two votes for secret it looks like we’re also looking at a tee home as you know I sleep I’m comply a home so favorite are we taking to yell mdl yeah I wash I watched a new patch get played and then I one who pie well I’ve watched him how many lands did we have like how many lands did we have before I’m deal and they’re at least two major lands before mdl yeah and I I mean ok and fine you don’t want count WC we at starladder 13 like weird weird Sam wait hundreds games played before that it’s not a new patch anymore brother I can’t deal with them or I’m giving you a little bit yeah you a little bit too much [ __ ] here the halo I agree with you that the many aspects of the meta are still up in the air but like Elam Elam took people apart in MDL yeah and not just EG so warning him he hold it is still the best even though we haven’t seen him play in a month now then like decent matches are we seeing anybody playing decent matches in a month yeah the captain’s draft tournament that’s the thing is it like dishes haven’t been that many tournaments that on like consistent and over a long period of time I think that is that’s what frustrates me about the AE home pick being so unanimous is that we did CEO Mizzou style I think that that people have slept in the Chinese teams going into mdl and they they certainly dominated but has there been enough time to figure this team out or they literally far ahead of people right now that they’re still the consensus big guys there yeah teams can definitely cut it’s been three weeks since mdl finished EG is fishy i think has put a lot of time into that specific matchup which they need to be no G both EG is one and five against uh Harmon like the last month alone so but it’s not cheesy it’s not just you home EG has struggled against a number of that that’s my big concern about them is that EG is struggled against a number of the top teams in this patch and I think if there’s one team that learns the most by losing it is eg and so I think that they’ll have a better showing in this tournament but I mean better what made the grand finals the last two major lines they’ve been too but still well fortunately for EG fans they’ve done a lot of losing lately knocks if i don’t mean to cut you off but i do want before we get too far down the rabbit hole to get to group B we’ve got Alliance fanatic team spirit and vici I I’m gonna for our own purposes say the team spirit and fanatic are probably not going to make it out of this one are they I think spirit has a shot I think they’re they’re not after the invoke their nerve well I still just think they’re like I don’t wanna say dumb style of play like they’re making you play their style they had that well

I could see like I know I know it’s just a CD term but we saw Alliance get destroyed by Vega 40 and TR plays an extremely similar game ok that’s what I that’s actually what I where I thought you were gonna start grant and that’s what I really want to pick your brain about in this group like you had a front-row seat for Alliance getting absolutely dismantled and the question I want to ask you did Vegas show us a blueprint for how to beat alliance yeah that I’d aggressive playstyle like 95 Manning just extremely aggressive in your fate winning Lane playstyle like not like that is with sumail loses a lane vs. say like Vega they’re gonna lose the game if you lose that bad Vega dominates their lanes and they just they keep going I think they did and teams fear plays very similar to Vega I think we saw in the past that one of the things that allowed Alliance to succeed at starladder 13 apart me for example is the fact that they were sort of in the grand final especially they were given room by eg to two cores nicely farm so that they could head into the enemy jungle with Chen and really push the issue is is that the thing is that you just you just make them uncomfortable from the get-go and that’s how you beat alliance no I think grant had it right is that you you you’ve got to win your lanes and you gotta run at him I it’s as simple as that um the thing that I worried about was spirit is that they are they’re very very reliant on iceberg who’s there tremendously talented young mid player a bit of a newcomer to the scene but he’s invoker is by far his best and most played hero apart from invoker his hero pool is pretty small he really plays mostly odeon Zeus and I think OD is gonna start to get banned I don’t know I don’t know about Zeus mid so i just i think without the invoker nerve i could have seen a spirit upside of alliance with it oof fair enough i thinkin spirit as a chance of beating vici and alliances will they probably not but i think they were chance fanatic i just now they’re so we all agree phonetic is probably number four okay yeah i’m at nap said love Matt I I think this is the easiest group to call and I think it’s its alliance in Fiji coming through it no problem the weekend we can agree ok so then then in that case freeing whoo-hoo-hoo in first two and second are we are we is a line along I think you have to take a lot I think you have to take Alliance at first it so when I used to do college basketball statistics I like alliances my wicked queen team of this tournament they’re like they’re like the opposite of a Cinderella okay there there a dominant team their tier 1 team but I actually do think that they’re vulnerable to upsets by mid to your opponents I just don’t think that team spirit or fanatic really have the tools to threaten Alliance seriously in group phase play I I think either alliances gonna be first or they’re gonna be Third died I don’t see him getting second let’s go there twice or they’re not gonna be the ones yet yeah as the bull call so the easiest group to call and we still have a little bit of disagreement I think that’s what we all love about the majors right now is that things are a little up in the air let’s go and move on to group c arguably maybe not even arguably easily the group of death we’ve got LGD no be 0 g & R Khan I mean a lot of there are a lot of people by the way I’ve been saying that about eegees group but I I actually think that this is a tougher stronger other yes group stronger than not you got all right I hear I was expecting to be the only one saying no man may be a group c is the back i I I don’t know that it’s clear cut but I think Group C and D are both just really tough yeah there are tears above the other two which is why it’s too bad that we have to wait days to see their games right well yeah it’s kind of you you it’s almost like someone new yeah you having a discussion a bunch of us and I think the agreement was dcab in from most difficult to lease difficult I can see them so this would be C would be the second hardest and I think that’s probably the most renown e I’d even say like you know DC a B it’s it’s the difference between the top two and the bottom two is is much less than the difference across yeah whoever comes out of these groups is gonna be in a favorable matchup I think well thank you see I don’t even know about that I like it just all depends on how the brackets fall because I dota right now is just teams are so much better then it becomes a lot more about matchups and play styles and who’s who’s good with which heroes that counter another team strats that it is about oh this team is just better than this team so officials at this stage Gibson credits of elf because we kind of agree that the groups are

relatively balanced and some sets maybe they are one or two changes you could make to make it more balanced but Group C has got three teams that were qualified teams and we’re still saying it’s the second hardest group I mean that’s just a testament to how close it is between a lot of the teams in terms of skill no I is only Derek than bhatia before we get into some really hard analysis I want to only keep the audience is suspenseful but we’ve got the top comment from our announcement thread today from xios if I’m pronouncing that correctly wants to know talked about how in the cs go majors the top eight finishers in the major auto qualify for the next major in magic the gatherings pro tour all 11 all players 11 wins and groups get invited the next Pro Tour stop if there was an automatic qualifying placement cutoff for dota tues majors and Ti where would you set the cutoff I mean every are we saying the top two from each group should be automatically invited because in that case taught top four placings I wouldn’t die I I think I’m cool or top six I would i i’m i am tend to be with Ben i would i would favor I’ve said in the past that I would favor six direct invites and and ten qualifier positions with three given to the three given to the two best performing regions in the previous major according to some objective criterion and I think it ought to be top for our auto invites to uh auto invites determined by committee and then the other tenor qualified so we’re talking about so I mean at that point with two automatic qualifiers we’re not even distributing invitations by region at that point are we were saying we’re not going to say and we haven’t been we haven’t been that’s the thing that the auto the it’s it’s pretty clear and I think this was the right move and I give valve a lot of credit for making it that the auto invites have pretty clearly been decided by who’s the best freaking dota theme and not oh we got to invite X teams from this region yep if it was me I’d just have the top to invite it i like seeing teams actually earn there’s not saying they don’t earn it when they’re invited obviously want stuff before but I mean how you played three weeks so like even at mdl isn’t indicative of how you’re gonna play tomorrow very true but you got it but the only thing the only thing is I’ll say about that grant it gets to be a slippery slope because um the big thing that turns fans if you look at the overall development of the sport and our growth is a scene the big thing that turns fans off is is opacity is just nobody understands why team x got invited and not team y yeah like you look at the BCS in college football no no that’s what I mean I just invite the first and second place people I’m good but I think but that the BC was bad though right like I think you might I think that you make the the biggest thing to me more important than how many top to top four top six whatever okay is that the whole process be more transparent and that we all understand exactly what goes into selecting teams but look at how much fun we had stirring up drama when Alliance was invited over liquid i think that there’s there’s some there’s some drama to be had there some pageantry I I kind of enjoyed it to be completely honest and II got invited to TIA those those mofo no no no that was I actually wrote an entire article about that I was so angry and I feel vindicated for the results let’s get back to the actual group predictions Group C LGD new bogt mark on let’s start with Knoxville your thoughts on Group C um I think Archon ok just I mean you’re all Americans so you gonna play me but I think I’ll cons them before yeah but I don’t think it’s I don’t think it’s other things que acabas fanatical MVP buzzing newbie maybe the team with like insane variants they played really well recently but just before that they played really trash so I think it’s probably OG at number one their performance at mdl was pretty decent despite them being sick they still managed to get top for their and LGD look good that’s a WC a UH they look pretty good at starladder too yeah I until I ran up against alliance they look like he’s one of the better they look like one of the two or three best teams in terms it’s very hard to look at overall placings in single elimination tournament sand try compare it’s the same with like liquid at WCA liquid basically got to the same points as Alliance and industry LGD whereas Alliance true wings and it was yeah but I studied that there’s there’s a lot to be gained from asking what’s the highest level dota a team has played and like LGD and og have both played really really high level

dota in this pack like I that’s kind of what i asked myself in terms of picking like a top four or six in a tournament like this is if this team plays at plays at its potential plays at the best level that we’ve seen him play in this patch maybe plus a little improvement can they beat the top teams and lvm an OG that question you answer with an emphatic yes yeah I think I think even with maybe we’ve seen some really really good play this patch I looked at the Russian you know they do like ratings for each of the teams to do some sort of power rating and it breaks down and that was a little weird man and they gave new be a 5 on their supposed to actually think new these supports have been playing really well I that I think it’s like yeah the exact opposite of what what they had i think that newbie is definitely a team that could break into top eight but it will take an upset or two and their team that can do that they looked really strong they did they won the day one the chinese qualifies didn’t it yes thing they yes they were the guys who know they were the members team sorry they were lgtm you were yeah that’s what that’s why by the way where’s down is a big issue when the brackets came out was i think that the groups are balanced but i actually do in terms of maybe a little bit of fanservice I actually do think it’s a little bit strange to me that you have the two Chinese qualifier teams facing each other in the first round hmm oh yeah LGD a new teammates in one of the semi-finals of the winner’s bracket saw that and it was 21 and the third game was actually pretty decent right yeah okay actually I think I just in newbies case i actually think they play they play a style that really is disorienting to a lot of teams because they’re very aggressive with their early game rotations they use a lot of smokes but then they then they’re very conservative in the mid game and they they get a lead and they stretch it out and it’s that’s that’s exactly what scans actually said he said I really hate costing maybe because it’s so great watching the money game and then they just sit there they don’t know how to go high ground and in a try go I grow which not no no no honestly from I’ve I watched a number of their replays I actually I don’t think it’s the not that they don’t know how at all I think it’s deliberate it’s it’s a very alike is if you look at them up it’s very disorienting to play against them they’ve had some success against the top teams doing this that bill they’ll get that early lead and then they’ll just sort of farm and farm and farm and the other team has lost map control and eventually the other team feels like they got to make some kind of a big play to get map control back great what’s not good it’s not feeding away big gold bleeds and ramp fights well there you go grant I want to go to you really quick because when when najas made some opinions that made some comments about our con you shook your head tell us why we should bet on our cotton group Group C like you wish it bad you shouldn’t bet him but I I think are gone I get last but I can’t say that cuz you know they’re there the boys from USA and I thought no house would be a little better of sport a no look I love China to it’s great fluff and look I honestly fluff and phebe on are two of the most underrated guys in the game in terms of their knowledge their understanding of dota they are great great captains I I really I i think if those two ever got damn stable roster underneath them and had a chance to develop a team over time that they could have another we have another great na team but sadly we can’t have a damn na dota team besides EGU stays together for longer than six my I think the problem too with our car knows exactly you said about iceberg monkeys forevers most played heroes by far and volker as well and he’s their weakest player I i can say that he’s like my name when they go off meta when they pick him something like arts weirdest [ __ ] like batrider mid he does great i think in meta heroes midi does off I yeah i agree i just think i think if you eat geez the best of all their positions nna but if you take them out i think mu is a top three most talented player to I think he’s he’s so underrated soy and then Jo Jo is playing Carrie I love him playing Carrie again instead of mid cuz his composure is way better light game then like if he was playing aggressive mint I don’t know don’t probably last but I’m not saying that so say hey I think og is good not so not so you’re gonna say oh jeez gonna finish fourth and I was about to kick you out of this skype call I I think get out of groups but then they’re gonna lose first round so whatever you’re not so tell me why you’re not sold on a jeep and it better not be over euros no moon manners on I mean let’s name honestly we could name the last major that a team one that didn’t have an American on it it’s a

long time ago cuz moving underrung I mean we’re they carry but I think they got figured out and I think miracle is actually in the same thing as a who’s the other young man I don’t know I think like how did they get figured out you mean it mdl where did it that’s where they lost to EG because like both teams were sick and it was a crazy series like you can use them their notes no no no okay hold on EG didn’t beat OG at mdl because both teams were sick they beat them because they picked fear of farming support and then has to put together great and they picked a big team fight here i managed to have teamfight the meridian I don’t even have to try this guys getting you for me like are you sick are you are you seriously good oh gee it looks like they look like world-beater OG&E home looked like the two best teams for most of that tournament and you’re gonna tell me that og got laid when I would you mean apart from Eve I’m Hutu and EG 10 vici day right I’m sorry did I admit not what I meant to say was this was true oh geez looked like the best two teams did I say EG did ya gonna do I wasn’t listening he said oh geez you know I what I’m been what I meant to say was an OG and II home looked like the tubers I just said I might have misspoken said EG satyam sorry yeah thanks Andy that’s all gucci mane yeah I I think how it’s shaking out like eegees been the ck is gonna come and beg this term I just think it’s not suited to I don’t know that that’s just my opinion I think oh gee isn’t going to be as great as everyone thinks they will gentlemen thank you for this delicious helping of popcorn by the way I think everybody watching thanks you too okay so we’re looking at obviously not an easy decision it’s not not as cut and dry as groupie for example but LGD looks strong OG looks strong and newbie it really depends on which line up shows up is that sort of a faced a fair way to put it together seems good okay well there we go uh then the final group of course is Group D another one of these groups of death which is so great that we get these complexity Evil Geniuses team liquid and virtus Pro guys please have at one another let’s start let’s start with you nas I mean how did call get a draw like this this is just brutal like I was all ready to talk about them as maybe being one of my surprise teams of the tournament this group is like the worst possible matchup for them it’s just it sucks I mean EDG they’re literally f done qualified through losers if they do know they and and I and the thing is like VP is is along along with secret and CDC VP is a team who the hell knows they’ve played like five games this year I could I mean I could see them finishing top six I could see them finishing 12 like who the hell knows what they’re gonna do and liquid liquid is such as liquid is a very very difficult team to call because they’re a dominant team outside of the top seven but within the top seven they’ve only played like five games so you just you don’t know how they’re I think liquid is going to be fine in terms of making it and I do think liquid will make it into the winner’s bracket out of this group but they’re against one of the highest variance teams and they don’t have a great track record against tier 1 squads so complexity going to struggle anybody anybody want to argue with that the complexity is uh has a tough road ahead shall we say well they definitely am a tough road but I I think they’re they’re literally one of those teams that you just I don’t even how to put this you think of him you’re like that’s a team they live in a team out like 24 7 they’re one of the few teams that like actually does that and I think with the introduction of a like other three European players there they’re insanely good and swindle mel’s is one of the the best in-game leaders I like I get to listen to scrims and stuff sometimes like sometimes just I think he’s gotten way better not flame but like in Game leadership not even drab just his leadership is so amazingly good they’ve won more games I swear maybe in the house the stats like were there down 20,000 and they just come back after my team fights you’re like I I don’t know why window is very very good if you ever listen it’s actually kind of you ever like listen to one of his debriefs but they do a very do they do a very detailed debrief after their games and it’s I really like swindle as a leader like um I think there are better drafters out there but in terms of a team leader I think he’s a he’s very very good I think you can see that in terms of they always have a plan even if they lose their lanes and like I said I was all ready to pick complexity as a dark horse team in this tournament I just think this is a very unfavorable good preventive I the only thing I’m gonna say is they definitely had no no offensive any players but like upgrading

from like Zyzz to chassis is like one of the bases with jail time like it’s just chat Jesse’s and say jesse is jesse is like beyond legit I mean that guy that guy he just he I don’t know that he’s I I don’t know that he is anywhere near his potential yet I don’t think he’s an elite level player right now but I think that potential I use the potential to be a top-10 player in the world I think that’s part is if this T sorry if this team loses like multiple tournaments in our own stuff that that’s I don’t even worry about them like disbanding or training a player right now they actually seem like a legitimate it’s exactly right it should i I just I think I think they are out class though I think there are another three to six months away from really contending for that for that high tier two tier 1 status but I think I think they’ll stay there i do think they’re get i think they’ll get there i think there are threatened vanilla I just don’t think I think they got a bad group and put together with that I don’t think they’re quite ready to make a run with this unfavorable drawn Shanghai you guys really took the words right out of my mouth this is we’ve had beef on the show we’ve talked to chassis as well this seems like a team that’s very much committed to getting better and understands that the way forward for North America isn’t constantly jumping on the roster carousel and hoping that whatever comes out the other side is world class want to talk about EG for a second and maybe i just love drama but we’ve got a question from sniper bad who’s asking if EG does not win yes ma’am it if EG doesn’t win a major with our TZ will they swap him for somebody else i mean this is a roster that’s supposed to be winning tournaments they’ve they’ve quote-unquote struggled by making the two past you know grand finals major tournaments is that are things really that dire for EG sitting in Group D now now there it doesn’t there they’re not gonna give up already before TI sexes either even if they could get last names turn and they won’t give him up I think the best player in the world that’s I think the only situation is one where where you have something like what they described it ti where they have a really tough loss and somebody just kind of loses their cool but apart from that no sorry sorry to interrupt sorry sorry sniper bad I’m afraid our TZ is here to stay I’m baby yeah it’s just yeah sniper bad come on man you know the program did so much great sniper bad bad I don’t mean that thank you very much your question and I appreciate you contributing to the show moving on a team liquid this is a team that a lot of people were really excited about for a while people were very hot on but they’ve sort of struggled it late this is not a team number three in Group D what is what our team liquids chances of getting out of this group oh I think that they’ve got the best chance to come like out of the group but not as the favorite for the group out of all of the groups so i think that the divide between them and BP is not necessarily the biggest i think like the difference in group c was the biggest between LGD and newbie but yeah it’s very close between complexity in virtus pro for that last place in the same way that’s team spirit and fanatic are very close I the way I would phrase that though is that I just my my interval in terms of reasonable finishes for VP is as why it is other team in the term we mentioned that earlier a secret CDC uh VP and I think Ben had vici gaming both of us had newbie though uh yeah those would be my four teams outside of Ichi gaming who I think will do really well the other ones I met you the four teams I just think our total wild cards in this tournament I could see them flaming out I could see any of those two teams any of those guys finishing even potentially on the upside of the bottom bottom four or five I could see any of those teams making a surprise run finishing top four you have any reason I mentioned beachy is just not necessarily that they are walled cut but that they’re very high variance they could come forth they could come second they could come six like where we don’t know any way or team liquid right now peachy they could come only the top sexy look the problem is it’s a problem with projecting liquid because like liquid liquid is is high mean low variance VP is probably a little lower mean but ridiculously high variance so who knows what VPT like if the VP team that played at Frankfurt shows up to this tournament now VP gave OG a hell of a series at Frankfurt in an elimination match like that was 21 that was probably the closest Series that that og hat and vp is always sort of on solid ground right now with with F and G in the captain’s chair cuz he always seems to give them something to work with even if it’s unorthodox even if it’s maybe not the best for the situation like we talked about with complexity they always seem to have a plan now don’t think I think I actually I I am a little bit biased I think I said I know the guy a little bit we we’ve talked a few times but I think

fmg is is extraordinarily bright and I think he’s a great great drafter I think he’s probably top six in the world drafter I just want to say I think the prom for liquor now is there they look weak like the last two tournaments they played they did my controls look bad matumbo man hasn’t been farming in an insane pace that he has been and those two observations are highly related yeah exactly and that’s I think they’re coming into the tournament like this and III think they’re I don’t think I don’t see him getting top two in the group yeah they need I mean that there’s no like there’s no I will agree with Grant in that there is no way around it if if mind control is not the sick AF player we’ve seen they’re screwed like they they absolutely need him to be an elite player in this tournament to have a shot at going deep and if he comes into this tournament in a slump they’re there they’re done for all right so we’ve got a highly variant team in complexity they’ve got a long road ahead we’ve got a team that’s slumping right now with Team Liquid so does that mean we’re cutting this this group of death down to EG + VDP that easily no I think I actually think it’s a good hygiene liquid absolutely the first question thank you great thank you i don’t think i just don’t see liquid doing good ok so let’s say I think the problem is just one point linka like they’ve been three major land dispatch WC a solid Amma’s and at WCA liquid lost to LGD who ended up coming second and it was single elimination I mean it was a third force play off but that’s irrelevant whatever wings gaming so they lost to a team that came second which is LGD and they also beats alliance 20 in group stage who won so is a like a three-way triangle there between those teams at starladder they lost to alliance so there’s once again same same situation and in an MDL yeah they they didn’t go to mdl so i’m thinking i think it’s like quite reasonable to say that like we haven’t seen enough of liquid going deep into these double elimination big Lance almonds and what that is to insult let’s go to expand on what you’re saying like because I think this is a this is a really good point this is why i said earlier that i think you I think you you have to watch the games before the playoffs because this is the other big error that I I think a lot of analysts make is they’ll talk about the finish order at a tournament like how good you looked before the playoff brackets a lot of weird stuff can happen how good you looked in the level of dota that you played before the playoff bracket does matter group stages matter and liquid lgd both looked insane they looked really really good at starladder before running into alliance and EG respectively and those those playoff series where those two teens got eliminated were were super super close like that liquid alliance series at starladder was one of the best series of DOTA I’ve seen in the last year I i do think liquid I think liquids really good but I I do agree with grant that if mine control is not if he doesn’t play like a tear one off later that team is they’re done they’re just done period alright so it sounds like we’ve got a handful of fairly agreed-upon predictions in these groups now we’re going to do the fun part right before we head into we hand figs off to valve to do the actual tournament um let’s go ahead and predict the final bracket let’s go ahead and break it down guys let’s who is going to flame out early in the bracket and and who’s going to make it through to the semi finals MVP icon in the fanatic maybe complexity think those Alexa both placers sure yeah there other than god oh gee I got OG just lose not getting out not winning one series I don’t think I was raised in the bracket it not believe they are I think they just they lose all right I’m not a hundred percent show but as far as I can recall from how the bracket worked at Frankfurt if RG wouldn’t a group they’ll play the second team from Group D which would be liquid all those pro so that would be a difficult game than the let’s I mean they do artists groups the parallel guess that’s competition though that they’re very that’s competition that they’re very familiar with us between there in the winner’s bracket and they don’t lose to newbie and LGD and they don’t get a best of one and get cheesed out by liquid or some well wouldn’t it be like very poetic justice if orgy with the news to achieve strats after what they did at Frankfurt yeah like they drops revolves around it was like a cheesy fun do of 0 different wine whoa fanboy work in my life what are you gonna call are okay fine fine I like anybody that

that exploits what’s broken in a patch you can say it’s it’s cheese but you can also say they won three million dollars like whatever I mean I don’t it if you’re doing something in your draft if you’re using meebo and huskar as sort of your ultimate like trump cards to go around lineups a lot of lineups involving other meta heroes like shadow fiend miracle on am like I yeah it was very hard to draft against them at Frankfurt I don’t think I I don’t call that cheese like they did they did one thing like they gave the ball to Michael Jordan nobody could stop Michael Jordan is that cheese yeah yes okay one thing that you called you a cheese I champion oh no no you’re right they definitely right if you choosing is the way to go cheesing somewhere to go I’m just saying that they had like you could break down their draft until like seven different strats and they did one or two of those strats every single game like that’s it strategy cheese whatever you are like you are you’re a hundred percent right in your fact pattern and a hundred percent like I don’t understand your conclusion right now like that’s that’s what teams should do teams I think more to I think more good teams need to run fewer strats and run them really really well OG ran half a dozen strats yes and that was a smaller set than some of the other top teams they run they ran every one of those half a dozen strats really really really well that’s hard to beat I’m loving this guy’s please keep talking this is a delicious pop career with you but then you look at so like EG who literally doesn’t run the same line up more than once ever and I mean I don’t know yeah but you think I I think they’re better play actually think they can get trapped with that though I think that’s that may be part of the reason that they struggled in grand finals I don’t know I don’t know let’s uh let’s go ahead and and try to narrow down our predictions while we wait for perfect world to get the the the the broadcast started wherever my words are I’m sure there somewhere let’s let’s figure out who is going to be in the upper bracket at semifinal who are your four teams we’re gonna make it all the way to upper bracket round two let’s get a require me to like actually look at the bracket won’t it well I’m not really are you asking for top floor finishes in the tournament are you asking for the winner’s bracket you know what let’s let’s make it easier on you guys let’s just go with it we’re not gonna predict the losers bracket at that who are your top four teams in Shanghai ok nos 0 g obviously I got I got I got home I got EG i got OG and then I think there are a number of contenders for that four spot I i think if you if you put a gun to my head and made me pick one I i guess i have to pick Alliance but I’m yeah I’m pretty nervous that they’re vulnerable the upsets ok fair enough i think i like that team a lot but i have the same with it’s like I think orgy is will be number three and then EG and even foxing phone number one and in number four is very difficult because Alliance is statistically the team that you want to put in there but yeah like they can lose games against any team if it’s contagious not playing well and V cheese waiting right there at 22 pants into top pool so whatever great who were who’s your top four I got got EG EO i mean i think everyone agrees on that and then I got LGD in secret well I think you think you can stop you want a breakthrough I do and you think and you think they’re gonna they’re gonna top 40 going back to talena and win Ranger with you because that’s my big question with them yeah what do you think they’re gonna do offline offlane miseries not like he’s not really a tide player and tides come back into the game yeah they’re gonna I don’t know their you have to find something silly with him honestly I think like a tree aunt offlane would be sick for him but I know I don’t mean it they found success with Florida is that’s so far out of the realm of possibility no I think Florida’s gonna get pic quite a bit na flings the problem is its win rate over the last month is actually so abysmally low it’s kind of funny there’s a print of the CD tournament it he won one game out of 12 he was picked without all heroes available to drown that just blew my mind how bad it was but alright so it sounds like we’ve got a pretty consensus EG andy home fighting for first and second nobody willing to commit to that and then we’ve got a real hodgepodge third and fourth guys i’m pretty sure the games are gonna be starting very soon so that’s probably our cue no definitely not gonna say no knoxville they’re going to start soon if you pretend that they’ll start soon yeah soon TM is a real key there guys any final thoughts on the Shanghai major

before we we close up shop I just hope the players get out there and they have a lot of fun that’s what a gaming’s all about you know nice beautifully said I think this I I just hope what we remember about this tournament is just absolutely awesome awesome dota and cuz i think it’s i think the scene is it a great place right now I think there are so many great teams I think there’s so many talented players that deserve recognition on this international stage i I just hope that what we’re talking about a week two weeks from now are the plays and the teams and the players and not perfect world yeah that’s right i hope it is i agree we’ll see awesome knoxville any final thoughts yeah I’m pretty good that’s my sleep schedule is slowly adjusting to this and that the format is conducive to watching for European people if you have literally nothing else to do and you can adjust your sleep schedule but I’m very excited to see I think that this is one of the most open tournaments that we’ve seen for a while of the major tournaments or large major premier tournaments and i think that there’s so many one is that this is going to be exciting all the way through top like all the games from top 6 onwards we’re gonna be killers yeah i think there are seven there are seven out of the 16 teams that can realistically win this tournament and that’s that to me is one of the more exciting things I it’s it is a wide open field and it’s going to be amazing obviously an incredibly exciting weekend of dota ahead of us nahas knoxville grant thank you guys so much for coming on the show your insight is appreciated as always I hope we can have you back sometime my pleasure ok and thank you you’re [ __ ] so if you guys enjoyed the show at home feel free to throw us a follow or if you really enjoyed the content hit us with us subscribe we got that shiny new subscriber button and we’ve got two new emotes dumpster fire and feces hitting a fan yes we chose the the arbiters of chaos in the emote world so if you want those go ahead and hit us up for 499 a month’s not a bad deal if you want to check out check out the show after the games have started and see all the brilliant predictions from our analysts check us out at youtube / daily esports check us out on facebook facebook daily dot esports over on twitter at eSports and I believe that’s all of them I feel sort of like a team player rattling off his sponsors I’ve been even d in double John Parker thank you so much for joining us tonight play some damn dota and we’ll leave it to perfect world to take it away