Centennial Lecture Series: Cliff Sadof – Bagworms to Borers

okay so I’m going to talk about decision making which I think it’s kind of funny since I not really the best at making decisions for myself but I’m trying to help people in the industry these make some some decisions about about pests whoops and before I get started you know I I’ve been working here for twenty up in here for almost all most 25 years now and I’ve had a lot of students who helped me out with lots of different things have my current man two students over here by Georgia have listed but some of my more notables in the past as well as some folks who’ve been helping me with doing a lot of the computer programming then of course they have a lot of faculty colleagues and different departments because when you work with pests it’s not just insects that I’m dealing with I’m dealing with plants and trees as well and of course my lovely benefactors that start with the letter U okay so the first thing that you want to do when you’re starting to think about about managing problems use is you want to identify what it is and then soft week I’ll be covering some of the new stuff that I’ve been doing along those lines developing an app for an iphone which I’ll show you in about a minute then it review some of the work that I did for about two decades or so on trying to identify the density of pests that growers and landscape managers and homeowners need to be concerned with when they make their decisions and then I’ll transition that to talking about how that relates to emerald ash borer in that it’s a it’s sort of a whole different ballgame because there’s a lot more at stake okay so with that I push number one right number two okay and shortly everything goes black 1013 okay and mm-hmm push number two this is true oh that way okay 22 ok this isn’t is an iphone for those you haven’t seen and this is called a dongle I don’t know why but it’s called the dongle I asked for the Wang dang doodle and they didn’t know what I was talking about but that’s what it looks like so this is so what we tried to do it turns out that I’ve been teaching a class for a number of years with Janet Beckerman called plant health care and what we we’ve been asked to do is try to integrate symptoms symptoms diagnosis because it turns out that when a landscaper sees a tree or you see a plant you don’t know whether it’s going to be an insect problem whether it’s going to be a disease problem or whether it’s going to be some sort of abiotic problem like this caused by drought so we have all three different types of problems that you that you can have and then we cover all things that we call trees which was a long discussion to discuss what but what a tree is but if we can search by name or I can go through category here and for shade trees or go through conifers and let’s say for example I wanted to see what was wrong with my with my arborvitae okay and there might be something wrong with I could check and see I can select the needles and I can flip through images to see what’s going on of course the first thing I think of when I think of our varieties is I think of bad worms which will defoliate plants and then next up on the list of course are things like spider mites okay so if you go for the more info button over here there is information about bagworms where we can look at look at describe the damage there’s we had text that we write to describe the damage we meeting myself an atom and Scott könig and Jenna Beckerman and then we can page through some of these symptoms for more clear discussions what you can see then there’s different stages of attack that we can see and so on and so forth this is the first instar larvae of a bag worm they it’s a wingless insect it doesn’t doesn’t fly has to blow from tree to tree and I think those of you remember mark rains he spoke exhaustively about a bag room which is probably why my management suggestions are so long we then also have information here where we can put we have effective active ingredients that are available the whole idea is is that a homeowner would go to a Bennett’s or go to some kind of garden store with this app and hand show them what kind of problem they have and they can have a list of active ingredient and match it with a product or somebody like from TruGreen Chemlawn could go and say let’s see I think you’ve got rust mites on

your bald cypress and somebody’s going to say huh rust mites what on earth is a rust mite well this is what look that leaves look like and when you look closely on these things you can see this is what a rust mite will look like ok so you can actually see what Russell so it’s a fantastic communication tool so we this is this will be out hopefully by September 20th this is one of the first steps is going through with the AG school so it’s a bit of a it’s been a bit of an adventure starting with arguing with PRF so they don’t get their two-thirds because this is more like a website and not like an invention and then there’s a whole list of things that we have to get involved in Apple is somebody that does not like to negotiate they just say they get their thirty percent and anything else is what we call what they call an internal problem so it’s is this has been an adventure in extension for me so many things that we talked about here are common pests but some of the past one and two are of course invasives okay so of course you know woodpecker injury is going to be an important symptom and then you can see these assigns the zigzag galleries we have information here about emerald ash borer so we decided to put this nice after I was all over my dad’s house uh beginning of the month and I I said you know dad I think we need to put something on here to get people’s attention so he says what you put something read so we did of course Rick Foster’s color blind he would say that’s no good but invasive alert so what we do is we have all this kinds of information about about emerald ash borer then under control we say with what the latest suggestions are but we also have some links sorry about this to certain websites and we had a video on what to expect from a professional injection and this will link us to the web and hopefully it will load and play this was mrs. a photo by a John Overmyer with cheese submitted three injections for emerald ash borer are designed but pesticide into a tree and moving through the trunk into the leaves this pesticide kills adult beetles feeding on the leaves and the larvae feeding the trunk under the bark tree size is measured as a diameter at breast height this tree is 27 inches wide size determines the amount of product injected into each trade small trees the dbh of less than 15 inches required a low rate of product larger trees require a medium high rate product is measured and eluded according to label directions and placed into a plastic reservoir each reservoir is pressurized with a bicycle pump to help push the pesticide it’s my favorite parts water stream through special injection ports that are inserted with a portable drilling mallet and dowel rod a set number of holes based on tree size are journaled for each port and evenly distribute around the base of the train this helps the pesticide spread uniformly around the trunk and up the tree into his leaves pressurized lines are then connected to each of the injection points when valves are open and pesticide is pushed into the trees porter column the tree sucks the entire content of the reservoir through the trunk on sunny days and moderate temperatures this happens quickly during cool cloudy days when trees need little water or during the hot sunny days when drought stress trees are trying to conserve water pesticide update is slow after the blue fluid has left the containers and the tubes are clear the injection is complete so this is a good communication device for you know when someone is spending ten dollars an inch or for nadal as a tree they might want to know that they’re getting the right stuff so so these are the kinds of things that that we have so now I can go back and here and go back to my tree dr and and so on and so forth so we’ve got about so this is sort of our new toy and which is going to be going for a dollar ninety-nine a piece okay for each app we figured we’d start at the bottom over there and let’s see it go back in particular but one yeah and we’re going to have three apps coming coming through this whole thing and hopefully we’ll sell more than a few of them will become hundred heirs okay all right so all right so here’s our tree dr okay now one of the things

about this is that it’s kind of difficult to get all gather all this information on a spot where we can share it so we worked with cirrus on this project because they are the kings and queens of database management they as so so they actually allowed us to create different lists of hosts that we could use symptoms to these different sorts of categories we can use to help categories are images over here and what’s nice is that I can be entering data Adam can be entering data Scott we can have several people entering data all the same time on a remote secure server which is really nice because we doesn’t want anybody coming in there and messing up with our database because we make enough spelling errors on our own to correct okay so there’s the nice thing is like I just we just type we upload images select which hosts are attack put active ingredients links and as well as right whatever we want about the damage of the diagnosis and it just gets popped up right in onto the onto the app so i hope so this is hopefully the first of many types of processes and we hope to be able to help with the other extension areas who are working with a vegetables and fruit and the likes we think this might be the way the way to go alright any questions about that the apps okay alright so so yes are you putting our reporting feature on your and get feedback for about where people are seeing these things yes we have that’s called version to version two this is okay this is this is this is a this is a great great question this is sort of a the math of apps okay i I don’t I don’t know i just bought the iphone about a month ago because i figured i want to know more about this but Janet Beckman’s had one for a number of you she tells me how it works you you make an appt okay and then all your updates are automatically pushed up into that app on a regular basis free of charge so if I you spend two dolls for the apps all those updates come through unless you have a new version and new versions does not constitute a spelling error new version would constitute a new significant function such as sending sending pictures in reporting no I think I’ve been thinking about this but it turns out that the folks at the diagnostic training center are producing us the corn and soybean guide they’re going to they’re going to put theirs on the iPad and on the iphone and they are actually inviting people to send pictures and submitting it digitally to the plant and pest diagnostic lab now I thought that would be a great idea until I woke up one night and I thought hmm 3,000 out-of-focus pictures of Japanese beetles that people are trying to tell me they discovered this new bug and they want to know what I think about it I don’t have time to do that okay and I don’t want to so but but but I think that what we so what we do is we have a provider when there’s if you have any questions that this thing can’t address we advise you to send it to the to the your local plant and pest diagnostic lab and there are 50 there’s one in every state and territory and we have a link a link a link to that but there are there is an app that AFIS has put out where they can show where you can take a picture of a say a suspected Asian longhorn beetle it tracks the GPS of where it isn’t it sends it off to someplace but that but it’s a great idea but the problem is if you start having 10,000 of these images to deal with then you you now have another full time job but yep will she be your apps and tossed out an answer who serie you should you have a i do i do i do you sure you know that Siri what do you think I’m leaving it on oh oh I say oh no no you don’t happen to say like I have to plan okay ready you want to know what Siri thinks about this okay let’s see what Siri thinks about this app okay Siri is this okay okay Siri okay okay what do you think about this app Siri oh now I speak okay how do you like my app let me check on that all right okay goodbye okay okay well well well Siri is as confused as ever ever okay um okay you know I found out that I could actually if you talk you can send messages that weight off the type little messages for text milk yeah I know well you know and you were my inspiration because it drives me nuts i can’t enter ok let’s go on to 60 now here now to talk about threshold and i was talking to my wife about this the other night and she reminded me of something which i forgot was I think it’s hysterical my

wife is an artist as many and many of you know so this research is all about aesthetics ok and how changing planet appearance changes its its marketability and its suitability for people so she says well as such as she kind of looks into des la she says clip people just don’t want to buy ugly plants and I told her that my job is to make the perfectly obvious seem obscure and this is how I I’ll do it so so this whole concept of threshold is just to figure out how much is too much the first time we did this was back in nineteen eighty six with the bag worms okay and that you saw at the back rooms look like this is the life cycle and so on these are Pete Dunn shrubs which I took as a nervous assistant professor in his yard in 1990 and we were so when you start thinking about dealing with aesthetics you want to think about what density is going to be threatening the plants okay and by that we mean threatening the ability to sell it if you are in the process if you are a Stanner surrey center or the ability to keep your customers happy if you’re in the business of maintaining people’s lawns or the ability to keep you happy if the plan is in your backyard you just want to you want to make sure that it keeps those pesky neighbors out of your view if it’s if it’s a big are providing okay so you can do this by having experts guess okay which is kind of the old way of doing it and or but what we did is we started studying the relationship between injury and density and then we’re doing market surveys to see how it affected people satisfaction and sales of this and we used a process called contingency evaluation which is a fancy way of saying here’s a range of injury which of these things do you think are Sark’s acceptable in there and they’re forced to say yes or no on all these different things that we use the we found the minimum level of injury that they found an acceptable and that’s what we call damage okay and here it is back in 1986 back when goofy guys like me had big glasses and mustaches we were out in front of a garden center with a poster appear over here it’s an old slides one soul and grainy and with the pictures of arborvitae with varying levels of injury and what we found lo and behold was that this is the proportion of people that felt that the plant was was unutilized well and this is the amount of leaf area that was discolored or missing due to backward injury and we found that somewhere between five and that somewhere between zero and five percent we lost half of our population of people who thought the plants look good okay so so basically you know we found that that that we made an arbitrary threshold we said if half the piff if it if more than half the people find a plant unsatisfactory then that’s the guidance we’re going to give people we can’t please everybody all the time man factors some people just hate arborvitae don’t want them at all but we but we can keep most the people happy so it’s so it drops off really fast there’s not much injury than after a while you know there’s you know it just it seems like a binomial type of response okay this remote here right I forgot about that okay so this was so much fun right didn’t graduate school I thought I do that when I came here where we worked on euonymus Oh burning bush which is a very common plant was more common around campus and this is the kind of injury that we showed we made another series of posters different styles now people are wearing silly looking shorts in garden centers and we have different pictures they have they asked the same sorts of questions and interestingly enough we found the same kind of relationship that more than half of the people found the plant was unacceptable okay somewhere around this level which was between five and eleven percent discolorations so it’s a very low level very very consistent kind of kind of a thing so once again my wife is saying okay cliff people don’t like ugly plants again I say but I have a graph to support it okay well I was doing this morning I took us about Evelyn had my daughter has a time help me over here we were because one of the criticisms I got was that we weren’t doing work we were doing work with pictures and people respond differently to live plants their pictures so I took a sabbatical by the way my advice to anybody taking a sabbatical is takes sabbatical in a nice place ok this is this was a thousand acre horticulture garden and I had the run of the place lots of plants and such and it was just just a nice place to hang out in the winter outside of Philadelphia and so we had these this was a formal garden in a greenhouse and we were growing these canna plants and we were I guess that picture didn’t get

through and we were showing up we had different levels of injury oh and we asked a lot of people who said is it okay do you think these plants are ok and once again we found this really fast drop-off here in terms of defoliation and that by the time you hit five percent you know we start hitting this this low level here so pretty much it’s somewhere between five and ten percentages it’s very very little injury is is enough to make people feel unsatisfied with the plant okay same sort of a thing so you know but since I was on sabbatical I thought to have some fun because that’s what sabbatical is all about that’s how a faculty spell vacation so what happens I asked three questions you know do you know if you are measuring the effect of defoliation can you distract people with fancy flowers from the foliation okay does that affect it does the average quality of the available plant influence tolerance and then that’s what i call the Mother’s Day situation you know how it is on Mother’s Day okay sunday before Mother’s Day you are on your way to your mother’s house and you realize oh I forgot to bring some plants so you go someplace and pretty much any plant is going to do okay now yes because it’s really not much left of a selection so so the thing is that you know so if so the question would be if the best plan is bad you know when you would that affect your tolerance and then of course this is the economics economic stake of your decision if it’s a very expensive plant will that meat be more important or if your livelihood effects on that so we had some so we did this in we continue this this serving a number of different areas here and we found that still whether the plants were printing the flowers are present or absence it still hovers around five percent or it’s the flowers seem to distract just a slight little bit you know I mean I don’t think that the six percent defoliation in five percent defoliation is any kind of meaningful difference but I found that if the best plant was just about perfect okay it was hovered around five but if the best plant was not perfect about four percent injury you needed eight percent injury in order for people to see so you’re starting to say well huh the best plant is it so you’re starting to see that if the best plan available isn’t perfect people might be willing to change their tolerance a little bit and then finally we found that if you dress up a flower if you dress up a plant with the foliation with a flower by making a flower that greatly increases the amount of inch of defoliation that they’re willing to take compared to a plant where the best plant is is the best plan has really good quality and the leaves are absent so so the thing is is a distraction seems to work a little bit but then again it’s all between five and ten percent okay so you know after doing this a number of times I can you know uh and then of course the other thing was uh if the plant was at home in your backyard you’d have a higher tolerance then you would if you paid money to go into a garden than if you were getting ready to buy it so when you’re getting ready to spend money you tend to be a little bit more discriminatory in in what is that that you’re going to do so so basically after doing this number of times we kind of figured that somewhere between five and ten percent i like to call the ten percent rule i was trying to think of Sherlock Holmes the ten percent solution so I think that the ten percent rule of ten percent of the plant is deformed distorted discolored missing or otherwise distraught that is pretty much what you don’t want to have so you want a minute you want to do your studies of insect populations so that you prevent that level of injury so this is great so we had this aesthetic injury level but how does that deal with economics and so the aesthetic injury level model just is solely looking at appearance that you’re an appearance level that you want to maintain an economic energy level will protect your investment so for example if you are selling if you’re growing plants you know at what level of density what proportion of plants that are injured do you need to have injured in order to justify some sort of spray the problem with it is that echo plants like corn is developed for some sort of economic value but ornamental plants are a little bit different you know because you can’t say well what is the value of a curled leafy how does have as Kirby’s affect the value what we decided to do is we use this aesthetic threshold and say what proportion of the plants were actually above a certain level so basically this is the economic injury level that you would see economic energy levels of density of pests which is equal to the cost of control divided by the value of

the crop times the injury past dense the injury the amount of injury caused by each past times the amount of dollars lost per each unit injury and for nursery plants you know we just talked about the number these are the marketable plants per area and of course this k is the effectiveness of control this is sort of standard stuff one of the things we family we work with the spider mites was that when we use just the strict economic injury level for nursery production we found we figured out how many people will be dissatisfied based on a relationship between insect between my density and the number of people they’ll be dissatisfied with a plan we found that if you use the strict economic injury level it worked fine for a nursery production okay because you would have very few people less than zero people of the satisfied if you have a group of plants you’re trying to maintain but if you’re trying to conserve this cost to value ratio over here that will work but when you’re looking for a single plant the whole thing falls apart okay because if you use the same number of insects if you’ve used if you would say if you use that to draw the situation you would have a third to two-thirds of your population would be unhappy if you just use the strict economic model so what we figured out was that if the cost of control / value of the crop starts getting high okay or approaches a hundred percent basically you you want to use aesthetic injury levels whereas if the cost of control versus the value of the crop is low you can use the economic injury level net so so basically in a nutshell in English it means that if it costs you almost the price of the plant to protect it all right and you want to protect it because you like the plant not because you care about the money okay then the economic injury level really is not the correct model but at the cost of control is low relative value the curve of the plant for example when you are producing thousands of poinsettias okay you know you’re not going to spend more money to then it costs you have to spend more money than the plants are worth Norder to protect the plans because that doesn’t make any economic sense so when you’re in this production mode the economic injury level makes sense and when you’re in this other area here for aesthetics for individual plants where the cause of control approaches the value of plant then you use these aesthetic injury level so that’s kind of how how how we all some this thing up and that was that was kind of fun and kind of fine up in that we help clarify what I thought were some confusing problem but my wife felt was perfectly obvious that people don’t like to buy ugly plants and and then we moved on so let’s move on to invasive species the difference between invasive species and something like a bag worm is that these invasive species like the emerald ash borer are truly destructive okay you know you lose a you lose an arbor vitae here or there to a back room you lose a hedgerow that’s not a big deal but we’re talking about something like emerald ash borer where we have 7 billion ash trees in North America you know that’s a that’s a lot of wood that’s a lot of trees that they have over there one out of every three street trees in the 90s that was planted was was an ash tree we’re talking about millions and millions i know that in a chicago they have three million ash trees on the streets okay and they’re going to lose all them if they don’t protect them so so this becomes a very very difficult kind of a problem so we we developed a bunch of different tools to try and help this thing and we we developed this thing called the emerald ash borer cost calculator to help you help cities make make some decisions but um just to get back to the aesthetic part these trees have value here’s a picture of a tree that’s got a 22 inch diameter at breast height meaning that you stand in front of the tree you put your hand on one side of the trunk and the other side of the trunk your hand is 22 inches apart okay this tree creates it gives a lot of aesthetic value to the people that live here in the dorm they’ll have to sit in the Sun and there is a vine too but there’s also some other other value that’s associated with that there’s a nice website called the national tree benefit calculator put up by by debut tree and you put in the zip code for West Lafayette and you look for a a white ash okay and you’ll see that the 22 inch white ash will provide three hundred and seven dollars worth of benefits every single year ok this i love this slide because when i show this to to municipal patent miss apologies right a marine we show the stuff the mayor’s the people with money they say wow you mean so we’re spending money so we can keep on the money coming in let me say yes and we and what’s interesting

to me is how this pie is broken up okay clearly people think in terms of property value okay when you have a nice good shade tree in front of your house that enhances the value of the property but but people also come up but the other thing which is which is good about that is that that in these municipalities like that because when property values are high what does that do to their tax rates okay they get more money coming in because their tax rates are based on the value of the homes but what’s really interesting to me is this storm water thing I was talking with Chad tinkle who was the city Forester in Fort Wayne and now that they’ve lost the majority of their 14,000 ash trees on the streets of Fort Wayne they are having floods lots and lots of floods each ash tree consumes about 2,200 gallons of water over the course of a year okay so when you have 14 and say let’s say twenty two hundred gallons let’s say you have ten thousand trees in a city 10,000 times 2200 that’s a lot of water to deal with in the storm sewer okay that’s an awful lot of war so so there’s some real costs associated with that and when the storm water system gets overtaxed a lot of the water gets the polluted water goes into the river there’s all kinds of negative effects so so these things do have a real dollar value just once again how this emerald ash borer kill a tree I think many of you have heard this before basically the larvae feeds on the phloem breaks up the vascular tissue and it basically just causes the tree to dry out all right one generation a year no phloem no trees pretty simple okay takes one to three years to kill a tree depending on on the the density of the size of the tree the density of emerald ash borer that are there but but it’s pretty inevitable in terms of impacts in your Dutch elm disease killed 200 million trees emerald ash borer killed 7.5 billion can kill 7.5 billion ash trees it’s huge okay and the scariest of this thing is all is that you add another zero to that and that would be Asian long-horned beetle okay so this is a so I’m Dutch elm disease was the warm-up for the emerald ash borer emerald ash borer is the warm-up for Asian long-horned beetle so hold on to your hats okay all right now this occurs rapidly okay my colleague dan herms sent me this picture he took this picture of the street in 2006 2009 okay all right that’s pretty fast all right don’t you think so right that’s really fast so it doesn’t take that long between the time where we’re starting to see some symptoms and the time that they’re all dead okay and the reason we know this is dead because that’s a maple tree over there that still has its leaves on it okay so one of the things that we tried to do now that we know that there’s this is a benefit of a wave is we try to model this to help inform the calculator so people can make better decisions because I think that what happens is something along the lines like this let’s imagine a simple model I’m a simple minded person so I use a simple mathematical model the number of trees that are affected by app by emerald ash borer will double every year so you start year one with one percent your to two percent your three is four percent 816 okay 32 64 2 100 it’s an eight year cycle until they’re all dead all right and so so and once all the trees are affected and they’re all they’re all dying the emerald ash borer population drops down i think it probably drops down a little bit faster than this but it drops down so the thing is that during this this the cusp okay and there in the crest part of this invasion way we really recommend people be very aggressive in terms of their control but after the way passes okay and most the emerald ash borer are dead because the only live the only the only living trees are the ones that have got insecticide in them the population of emerald ash borer is going to be really really low so then you can go into a maintenance phase okay and that’s really important for trying to estimate and predict costs because let’s say for example if you are doing the triage injections which I showed you before you would do those every two years during the aggressive phase and then maybe every four years during the maintenance phase okay and that’s the that’s the model that we use to simulate our costs okay so what’s interesting to see is that is that the the decline is very slow and hard to see it the cusp because you know where we are right here in Lafayette we’re at the cusp ok it’s on sagamore parkway it’s in West Lafayette it’s a you know and we’re just starting to see it okay so we are at we

are at the cusp at the custom of the situation we are trying to to get people’s awareness about this thing we’ve been working on Ann Marie and I and Melissa and I we’ve been working on on with people we had these tagging event you might have seen the blue the blue signs here on Sagamore pocket but this one slide here always reminds me this is my humble slide okay because this is a picture a Belinda Kiger in and Mayor Tony much more ski okay and in front of a tree when we’re doing a tagging of alright i took this picture in october of 2010 april 2011 belinda calls me up and says hey guess what we found emerald ash borer in in lafayette i said where he’s on that tree that you took a picture of a few months ago i said really well now i can see flex on and i can start seeing well that would look really suspicious but that tree looked really good it was completely leaked out so it’s really really hard really really hard to see so what we did is we use this an emerald ash borer cost calculation one of the things I guess I just want to back up a little bit just in case I don’t do that is that you know typically people tend to notice it right about here okay they don’t notice it right there because I know if you’re saying if you notice that eight percent of your trees are affected you’re going to be really good because you think of it like this if one out of every three street trees is an ash right and eight percent of the ash trees are showing symptoms that means one out of the 12 ash trees are showing symptoms so one out of 12 of the one-third of the trees that are out there if those ones are show up sometimes you can be pretty sharp to see that most people won’t even see it till it’s like this and you have a very short period of time okay so I think once we start seeing that we have maybe for maybe three or four years five tops until until the dough that they’re all gone so okay so here’s is a representative forest with 1200 ash trees okay that I want to use to sort of to demonstrate some points basically this is this is just mid point values of age classes like between 0 & 3 okay four to six six to twelve twelve to eighteen 18 24 24 inches and it’s a made-up forest because the numbers are easy to remember for me a hundred in each class 200 300 you know and so on and we used we compare three different strategies replace unsafe ass just just so you know don’t think about being too far ahead in terms of planning just replace the trees as they die remove all the ash proactively over the year period or the invasion wave and then save half of them save the best half okay and replace the rest over over an eight-year period we’re assuming is going to cost three dollars per inch per year a treated yearly and during the maintenance things we do every three years I use this model because it displays better graphically okay and the treatments saved ninety-five percent of the trees and the annual mortality of save trees are two percent and it costs about four dollars to replace each tree what we find well we find is the this this y-axis over here represents the the costs the x-axis represents time the top one represents annual costs and you know so here we are okay right now we’re this is where we are in Lafayette okay in West Lafayette we are just paying to replace the trees as they die I know it it’s looking pretty good okay yeah we’re not spending a whole lot of money at all as opposed to say proactively removing all the trees at the tune of about a hundred thousand dollars a year or even saving half of the trees at the tune of seventy-five thousand dollars a year but you know all of a sudden that geometric curve of increase just catches up with you and all of a sudden toys Ian you’re spending three hundred fifty thousand dollars in that last year that is a budget-busting proposition for most municipalities and the sad part of it is is that all three costs all three of scenarios over the 25-year period cost the same it costs the same now budgets in municipalities tend to be made by trying to control annual costs so I love this I love showing the slide and I get a lot of responses when I talk to city managers because I say well we can we definitely want to choose some of one of these options rather than the miss officers because this is going to bust our budget okay now what do you get for the different for the different management scenarios different management scenarios well what you do is if if you are letting the trees die they all die okay and because you’re replacing them this is the actual i call this as the the total DB h and the total vb h is if you were to take all your trees and stack them up together into a diameter to diameter this is the sum of the total diameters of all the trees and it’s just a measure of tree size and then bias measure and you’re going to

find that in 25 years you will wind up having half the size of the ash bars that what you initially started off with but if you are saving half your trees in 25 years you’ll be nearly back to where you were so you get twice as many trees for the same amount of money over 25 year period okay plus you control your annual costs so in my in my book this is a win-win situation so this is what I try and tell people cuz they say well we don’t want to spend money on saving these Ashley’s because here we’re just throwing good money after bad well this shows you that you’re throwing out that no matter which way you go no matter which way you go you’re throwing money at the problem okay and you’re throwing the same amount of money about the problem anyway you go here but one way you get a lot more free money the other way you just throwing it away okay it’s earlier better than later so we’re trying to tell people that when your county is quarantined start treating them because you know the emerald ash borer is on the move even though you can’t tell it okay and you could rather than then then wait until you see it and with the cost calculator we allow you and just like you can look for like you can stage a cancer you can we allowing you to stage your infestation of emerald ash borer and you you would to say how many by looking at the percentages that we have this using the simple wo you can sort of guess where you are in the invasion wave and modeling it like this what you see here is that is that if you start off if you go start off earlier okay your your annual costs are contained a little bit more when you involve these in these interventions okay whereas so so it winds up so your and whereas if you put this together over here your cost is compressed but instead of being 350 it’s more like three hundred eighty thousand dollars so so the thing is that any way you look at it the more you wait the more money that you’re going wound up spending okay so that’s kind of that that’s kind of where it is so that’s so with that you know there are still a number of challenges that are available you know one of the things is integrating aesthetics with with forestry they you know I think that when you start talking about invasive species and and and the like I think these are very very different kinds kinds of questions I have tried to work with the Forest Service on trying to get funding for the calculator and working with it can economists but they see me as an animal just not as an economist I have not been very very successful so I’m just sort of a moving moving along as we can I would love to see integration of the calculator with the iphone but the iphone has its own sentence challenges what’s going to happen in two weeks iphone 5 okay and in a few more and then we also the iphone actually i was told is actually the easiest way to deliver new technologies because apple is very very rigorous in what it is its characteristic so so that all all apple products won’t respond the same way the in with the android operating system i was told it’s kind of like the Wild West every single machine will respond just a little bit differently but but on top of that in a few months Windows 8 is going to come out which means that we will say goodbye to microsoft office and we will now all have apps and that the app on your iPhone will work on your laptop and you can do all the sort of the same sort stuff so it’s going to be it’s going to be interesting and who knows what is going to happen after after these sorts of things so with that up take a questions you